Most-Cited Authors on Climate Science
News: 2009-11-19 I was interviewed about this website on The Current on CBC Radio 1, for their segment on James Hoggan's powerful new book Climate Cover-up.
Their program notes include a link to play the audio podcast [28 min. mp3 - my segment starts at 14:45 - 17:25]
Note: My list includes all 37 people covered in Lawrence Solomon's The Deniers. I've noted "LSDeniers" beside these 37 names.
My separate page for this group is here:
Solomon's The Deniers.
Several people he profiles are not climate skeptics by any stretch; as I note in the page for this list, Sami Solanki and Nigel Weiss both complained about how Solomon protrayed them. I've put "(LSDeniers)" in parentheses for those I see as most ill-fitting as "deniers."
|
This site provides information on over 2000 climate scientists
and authors who have signed public statement on climate change.
This includes both statements calling for action to cut
greenhouse gas emissions as well as ones that argue
against such action.
Each name has a link to the person's web page at a university
or national research lab, where one was found.
I used Google Scholar to look up what each author had
published on climate, and how widely cited their work is.
This information lets us compare the credibility of those
arguing against curbs on greenhouse emissions versus those
supporting them.
The upshot of this comparison is that the climate change
"skeptic" position has very few authors with any standing
as climate scientists.
While several public declarations against acting on
emission reductions have a large number of names,
the great proportion of those signers turn out to
have virtually no qualifications on this topic.
|
I have compiled a list of homepages and some citation stats for all the authors from Working Group 1 of the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report ('AR4') from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as well as a longer list including other active climate science researchers. The longer list is far from complete, only compiled by hand, but it's a good start, anyway. I've continued accumulating names from as many sources as I can think of, including co-authors of those already listed, compilations of key documents in the literature on this subject, etc.
The list of AR4 wg1 contributing authors is drawn from Annex 2 in the
AR4 wg1 report, pp. 955-968. (I have not flagged the reviewers named in Annex 3, only the 619 Contributing Authors named in Annex 2.)
For each author I've linked to their homepage at a university or research
institute (all but about 50 of the 619 AR4 wg1 authors have one.)
by cites -
by # works on climate
Table of all 619 IPCC AR4 wg 1 contributing authors
by cites -
by # works on climate
Table of 3000+ climate scientists and signatories of public declarations on climate (including AR4wg1, skeptics, and others; stats done on over 2300)
by cites -
by # works on climate
Table of authors who are fellows of a learned society (AAAS, AGU, AMS, Royal Society, Royal Meteorological Society)
by cites -
by # works on climate
Table of 259 Canadian climate authors (including AR4wg1, skeptics and others)
by cites -
by # works on climate
Table of UK climate authors (including AR4wg1, skeptics and others)
by cites -
by # works on climate
Table of 246 female climate authors (includes 79 AR4wg1 authors; 93 activist and 6 skeptic signers)
Lists of Climate Skeptics:
by cites -
by # works on climate
Table of 496 climate skeptics who signed any of twelve skeptics declarations, or appeared in TGGWS
by cites -
by # works on climate
Table of 37 authors profiled in Lawrence Solomon's The Deniers series in Canada's National Post (and follow-on book of the same name)
by cites -
by # works on climate
Table of 206 signers of the 2008 skeptics' 'Manhattan Declaration' identified as scientists by organizers
by cites -
by # works on climate
Table of 115 signers of the Cato Institute 2009 letter to Obama on climate (ran in newspaper ad)
by cites -
by # works on climate
Table of 40 listed authors of the 2008 'summary for policymakers' and/or the 2009 report from the so-called "Non-governmental International Panel on Climate Change"
by cites -
by # works on climate
Table of 17 people featured in Martin Durkin's 2007 film The Great Global Warming Swindle, plus 37 signers of a letter protesting errors in the film
WARNING these next two links are to pages with HUNDREDS of photo links,
totaling over 40 MB for the larger set.
Loading these over a slow link may take eons, or may exceed the memory
limits of devices with small memory. Not recommended if you pay per
byte, as on a wireless handheld (Crackberry, web-enabled cellphone etc.)
Each photo links to the author's homepage, if known. Mouse over any photo to see their name and institutional affiliation.
Faces of most of the 619 IPCC AR4 wg 1 contributing authors
Faces of over 1300 climate authors and skeptics
Sources for positions taken by scientists
Many groups have organized petitions, open letters or public declarations about climate change, both activist and contrarian/skeptic. In my lists I've annotated which authors have signed one or more of these. Below are lists of the statements and letters that I've tabulated:
- Calls for action and open letters from scientists: see my
links to source documents which includes notes on my methods; see also my
discussion on petitions and another on
open letters and lists.
Some of the key calls to action:
- The January, 2009 Monaco Declaration on Ocean Acification signed by 155 oceanographers [Tag: Monaco09; stats done for 21 signers]. (Note that ocean acidification by elevated CO2 entering the oceans from the atmosphere is independent of the 'greenhouse' effect, and represents an additional harmful impact on top of temperature changes. Here's another powerful statement on how serious this 'other CO2 problem' is.)
- The
"Bali Climate Declaration" signed by 212 scientists in December 2007, urging the delegates to the Bali climate negotiations to negotiate strong targets for greenhouse gas reductions. [Signatories shown as 'Bali07' in the notes column of the tables]
- A new and forceful appeal for action on climate put together by the Union of Conerned Scientists and endorsed by over 1,700 American scientists and economists. [Tag: UCS08 - far from complete but I've noted some 144 signers already in my longer list.]
- An open letter entitled The State of Climate Science: October 2003 from just over 1000 U.S. scientists, 880 of them PhDs. [Tagged as SCS03 in the 'notes' column; 35 in list with stats, 22 listed without stats yet.]
- A list of over sixty
scholarly journals in the field of climate science and related disciplines. Each one is a link to the journal's online edition. Most allow free access to article abstracts, and some to even more content. See what peer-reviewed content on climate is available online to judge for yourself.
- A list of 75
University research centers on
climate-related topics.
- My Blogspot site Green Herring
- A 2009-09-03 NYT editorial 'Another Astroturf Campaign' about oil industry tactics in opposing U.S. climate legislation
The 'Who'
I'm not an academic, but I appreciate science and I consider myself
"scientifically literate." I minored in math at CWRU
(B.A., political science & philosophy, 1980).
I read Scientific American basically cover-to-cover
from high school until around the time the internet started to take off.
Now I get my science fix online.
Thanks to my job as computer support staff at
University of Toronto,
I have access to electronic and/or print copies of most major journals,
and a very extensive library collection of print works. I also get
the opportunity to enroll in or to audit whatever courses catch my
interest. I usually select one course per semester. Even when I'm
just auditing, I try to do all the assigned readings. In this way I've
benefited from courses on global climate change, climatology, future
energy supply and demand, the physics of the greenhouse effect and planetary
radiation balance, and climate politics and policy options.
I also take advantage of many excellent guest lecture series,
particularly those hosted by the
Centre for Global Change Science
in the Physics department, just across St. George St. from my office.
The 'Why'
I've been studying climatology and the science behind global warming in my spare time for several years now.
Through my studies, I've come to recognize the names of the top authors and research institutes. Through following this issue online and in the media, I've also grown all too familiar with the tiny minority of 'climate skeptics' or 'deniers' who try to minimize the problem, absolve humans of any major impact, or suggest there is no need to take any action.
I've gotten pretty fed up with the undue weight given to the skeptics
in the media and online. Many media reports aimed for a false 'balance'
by interviewing one mainstream scientist followed by one 'skeptic.'
On the web, it's even crazier, with numerous sites promoting "climate denial"
by collecting names of skeptics, "quote-mining" for skeptical or ambiguous
statements, and producing dodgy climate-denial 'petitions' claiming numerous
"scientists" as signatories.
Most of these skeptics/deniers/petition signers have little to no academic
credentials in this specific field, although a handful stand out
as widely published in this or a somewhat related field.
The 'What'
To put all this in context, I decided to collect all the names I
could find of authors who have published on this subject, use
the wonderful Google Scholar
site to find their top most cited works, and gather the number of
citatation for their top few papers (I settled on the top four, and
I've sorted on the #4 most cited. This limits the 'one big paper'
effect, but conversely underrates James Hansen down at #24, while his top
cited paper would put him at #2, and his #2 paper would land 3rd. Oh well.)
Overall, the citation counts from Google Scholar are most useful as a relative measure - they can either over-count or under-count both works and citations due to many variables. There's a whole body of literature on how useful or not citation counts can be for gauging authors' or journals' impact; I'm not going to tackle that here. Consider all these stats as FWIW - for what it's worth; still, they do make clear who is getting published and cited, and who much less so (or not at all).
This is my shot at 'portrait of a consensus' in the journals. I offer this as a complement to work like Naomi Oereskes' review.
The 'How'
I began with the names that came right to mind: Hansen, Wigley,
Trenberth, Emmanuel; names of some pioneers like Keeling, Suess & Revelle;
authors of books I've read, such as Andrew Dessler, or covered in
books I enjoyed, such as Lonnie Thompson and Ellen Moseley-Thompson
(described in Mark Bowen's excellent Thin Ice).
Starting with these first names, I searched in Google Scholar
with "author:f-lastname" or fm-lastname (equivalent to going into
the advanced search page and entering the author's name).
Looking at the top few results, I confirmed that I was getting
papers on climate science, not false positives for someone with
a similar name in some other field. Then for the top 4 valid hits,
I recorded the cite counts, then also noted down all the co-authors'
names. This can be quite a long
list, particularly for major works such as review articles, the
IPCC reports themselves, etc. Then I would just feed these names
into the hopper and repeat.
For each author, I look up their current or last institutional
affiliation, jotting down a few words to note their areas of research,
and linking to their homepage if I can. University professors almost
always have one (or more), but scholars working at a government or military
research institution (UK Met Office, US Navy NRL) generally do not.
In several such cases I've settled for a link to their staff directory
listing, which confirms they work there and gives contact info.
My notes on areas of interest are sketchy at best; for better info
see the author's homepage.
I've created a reference list including name, year of Ph.D. if shown,
citation stats (still gathering), homepage, and photo URL. I collect
this in Excel for ease of editing, then I export as tab-delimited
text and run the data through a perl script to generate various
HTML files.
The Results
I've packaged the same info into several different HTML presentations:
- A table showing names, stats, and links to homepage, photo, and
a pre-formatted query for Google Scholar to retrieve that author's
publications. Google Scholar sorts results by citation count, so the
first page of results gives the author's top-cited works, and is
a good way to introduce yourself to an author's work.
- A similar table of only Canadian authors, including the 130
who signed the CMOS open letter in 2006.
- A page of only the photos, with the most cited authors first. Each
photo is a link to the author's homepage. Hover the mouse over any photo
without clicking to see a 'tooltip' box showing their name and institution.
The photos are all in one long "line", which will wrap to fill your
browser window, then can scroll vertically. This one is mostly for
fun, and to give a non-verbal impression of the 'sea of faces'
speaking on the science. Self-declared 'skeptics' are flagged with
red brackets (e.g. signatories of various open letters that argue against
any action to cut carbon emissions.)
We can use these citation stats for comparative purposes, subject to the
caveat that more common names can easily match multiple unrelated authors.
Journal author names are typical given only as first
initial(s) and last name; it appears that searching on a full
first-and-last name may not work consistently in excluding other
authors with the same first initial(s), while at the same time
may under-count or miss some works actually by that author.
This mixing in of false positives can often inflate the
GS tot. and/or GS PAPS tot. figures.
However, when viewing the citation counts, I have taken
care not to count such false positives, by skimming the
title, journal name, and excerpt. In that case, I try to create
a custom search string to exclude false positives caused by
same-named authors, before collecting the totals. This is
hard to guarantee, as I'd need to review all the hits to be
really certain, which is burdensome. Instead I've usually
checked the first few screens of 10 results each; if there are
no more false positives in the top 30, I deem the exclusions to
be good enough, and the total count be 'close enough.' In some cases
a name is just so common that I gave up on isolating that author's
work to get the totals; in that case I've just entered "names" to
indicate there were too many false positives to get a valid total.
Table of over 2900 climate authors
Table of all 619 IPCC AR4 wg 1 contributing authors
Table of 225 Canadian climate scientists (including AR4wg1 and others)
WARNING these two links are to pages with HUNDREDS of photo links on one page.
Loading these over a slow link may take eons, or may exceed the memory
limits of devices with small memory. Not recommended if you pay per
byte, as on a wireless handheld (Crackberry etc.)
Photos of over 1100 climate scientists
Photos of IPCC AR4 wg 1 contributing authors